Thanh Thuong
Given seasonal factors, the demand for foreign currencies will pick up towards the end of the year as enterprises will boost imports to serve production. Meanwhile, trade deficit will also increase as local enterprises still heavily depend on input material imports.
However, foreign currency supplies remain stable and can meet demands of the nation, VCBS said in the report.
Foreign direct investment capital has increased steadily and foreign exchange reserve has been equivalent to 12 weeks of imports. Meanwhile, the World Bank has made an optimistic forecast on overseas remittances, saying that around US$11 billion would flow into the country this year.
As inflation is no longer a worrying sign, the dong-U.S. dollar exchange rate will increase by 1% but in early 2014. The increase, if any, will be suitable with the Government’s easing policy, the dong devaluation scheme and maintenance of low interest rates to support economic growth, the broker said.
VCBS also said that interest rates will be stable from now to the end of the year as lending rates have dropped to levels in 2005 and 2006. The gap between mobilization and lending rates has narrowed down to 2.8 to three percentage points, so it is impossible for banks to cut rates further.
Meanwhile, macro economic indicators have also suggested that mobilization rates may not drop further this year.
In addition, credit is expected to rise sharply in the last month as large banks are trying to extend loans. The central bank has applied solutions to help banks improve credit growth. It has asked for approval from the Government to allow credit institutions to grant bigger loans to customers, especially those developing key and priority projects.
Đăng ký: VietNam News