PANO – A new World Bank report projects GDP growth in Vietnam to rise modestly to 5.5% by 2015, with macroeconomic stability largely restored.
(photo: MH)
The Taking Stock, launched on December 2nd, also says that the medium-term macroeconomic outlook remains favorable on balance.
“Vietnam has done well in ensuring macroeconomic stability over the past year, which has been underpinned by moderating inflation and strengthening external accounts,” says Victoria Kwakwa, the World Bank’s Country Director for Vietnam. “Focus should now be made on the slow moving structural reforms to reposition Vietnam on a higher growth trajectory.”
The Taking Stock, a bi-annual assessment of Vietnam’s economy, identifies several critical risks to macro-economic stability, including low foreign exchange reserves; fragile private sector demand, possibility of departure from fiscal and monetary discipline; slow progress on structural reforms; and loss of confidence in a fragile banking sector.
“With rising pressures on the budget, the government is faced with some crucial policy choices, as it seeks to balance the twin objectives of faster growth and macroeconomic stability,” notes Sandeep Mahajan, the World Bank’s Lead Economist for Vietnam.
The Report also looks at 3 special topics, namely: “Trade facilitation, competitiveness and growth in Vietnam”; “Corruption and economic growth in Vietnam”, and “Poverty and inequality in Vietnam”.
With regards to trade facilitation, competitiveness and growth in Vietnam, the report notes that while exports have remained strong in recent years despite a difficult external environment, they remain dominated by low value products. The report suggests an enhanced emphasis on greater value added, which requires the strengthening of transport infrastructure and logistics, regulatory procedures for trade, and supply chain organization.
Corruption in Vietnam has long been recognized as a serious problem, which likely undermines the Vietnam’s long-term growth.
Based on preliminary analysis that draws on the latest survey data, the report finds the welfare of most Vietnamese improved substantially over 2010-12, even while growth was more modest than previously. This generated a drop in the poverty rate, and likely a decrease in inequality. Ethnic minority welfare has improved greatly over time. However, poverty still remains concentrated among these groups.
The report suggests that the observed pathways out of poverty for the ethnic minorities are similar to those of the majority group. The process would involve moving to cash crop production, intensifying agricultural production, moving to agricultural diversification and/or trading and services, and investing in education for children.
Dien Vy
Đăng ký: VietNam News