After sharply rising in July, the exchange rate is now easing and according to some experts, the rate will remain stable until the end of the year.
The USD continues to hold steady after dropping slightly. Specifically, the dollar-purchasing price of the banking system has ranged from VND21,050 and VND21,075 per USD and the dollar-selling price from VND21,115 to VND21,125 per USD. In particular, the Techcombank has the lowest dollar-purchasing price of VND21,050 per USD and the highest price is VND21,125 per USD. Vietcombank has the highest dollar-purchasing price of VND21,075 per USD and the lowest selling price of VND21,115 per USD.
The dollar price on the free market has fluctuated around the price listed on the banking system: the purchasing price fluctuated around from VND21,105 to VND21,110 per USD and the selling price from VND21,125 to VND21,130 VND per USD, which is a little higher than the listed price on the banking system.
Backward movement
According to Mr Le Xuan Nghia, Member of the National Financial and Monetary Policy Advisory Council, the expected exchange rate has never been reversed like this year. Normally, the exchange rates are expected at a lower rate at the beginning of the year and higher at the end of the year. Typically, as in 2010, the exchange rate was expected to increase by 3 percent but rose to 9.6 percent at the end of the year, which caused a “shock” to the economy. Meanwhile, in 2013, the first year rate was expected to rise to 8 percent but in the mid-year, the expected rate has dropped to 3 percent and only 1 percent at the end of the year.
Indeed, the exchange rate had been rebounded strongly after being adjusted by the State Bank of Vietnam on 28 June 2013. Accordingly, the interbank rate had climbed to its highest level at VND21,350 per USD, up 2 percent compared with that on 78/2013 of the beginning of the year, and the exchange rate on the free market was up to nearly VND22,000 per USD, which created a big difference of VND400 per USD or approximately 4 percent between the official rate and the unofficial rate. However, the exchange rate was immediately reduced and stabilized.
Reaching VND21,500 per USD in mid 2014
“Basically, the exchange rate could be stable in the mid term,” said Mr Nghia. According to Mr Nghia, his analysis has based on the current situation when the exports have increased sharply at 9.5 percent since September. The Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) signals positively, with the registered capital of US$15 billions in the third quarter, representing an increase of 36 percent and the reimbursed capital has increased by US$8.62 billion, representing an increase of 6.4 percent. Mr Nghia also said that in 2013, the overall balance of payments is expected to be US$5 billions. Thus, the pressure on the exchange rate is not high.
According to the latest report on 10/28, the ANZ has an optimistic evaluation on the exchange rate of Vietnam. Accordingly, the ANZ forecasts that Vietnam’s foreign exchange reserves will be at about US$32 billions. The ANZ’s forecast is based on the latest report of the Government. It is said that the foreign exchange reserves of Vietnam can guarantee 12 weeks of imports. This year’s foreign exchange reserves have increased significantly, compared with approximately 6 to 6.5 weeks of imports in 2013.
According to this report, the balance of trade of Vietnam in the 12 months is also improved sharply when the trade deficit is about US$0.5 billion, compared with the deficit of up to US$15 billion in 2010. The remittances from abroad in 2013 are projected to reach US$13 billion. Although some of indirect flows have been withdrawn from Vietnam, according to the ANZ, the foreign direct investment is still promising because from the beginning of the year to September, the FDI has increased by 52.2 percent, compared with the same period last year, reaching a total investment of US$9.3 billion.
“We forecast the currency will be VND21,500 per US$in mid-2014. Vietnam will maintain its modest trade surplus in 12 months while the domestic demands will decrease and the exports of technology will increase, which can help reduce the pressure,” said Glenn B. Maguire, the chief economist of the ANZ in the Asia Pacific.
The economic report in the recent 10 months of the National Financial Supervisory Commission, which was announced on October 29, also states that the foreign exchange market and the exchange rate are likely to continue to maintain its stability in the last months of 2013 due to the constant abundant supplies of the foreign currencies from the FDI, ODA, and remittances, while the demands for foreign exchange currencies in the last months have really taken off yet. Specifically, according to the National Financial Supervisory Commission, the supplies of foreign currencies from the disbursement of the FDI, ODA and remittances are expected to be approximately US$25 billion in 2013 while as of September, the foreign currency credits had decreased sharply, approximately 13.65 percent as compared with 2012.
TN
Đăng ký: VietNam News