(VOV) -The future is looking bright for export-oriented businesses, according to a forecast by economists at the Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation (HSBC).
In their latest report, the HSBC said the reason is simple: Vietnam’s economy is export-dependent, with overseas shipment of goods comprising 81% of GDP in 2012.
Despite a faltering global demand in 2013 and declining commodity prices, exports managed a respectable expansion of 15.4% principally due to to a rebound in the garment and textile sectors as well as an increase in foreign investment in the electronics sector, it said.
The report showed that Vietnam’s disbursed FDI went up 9.9% and its pledged FDI also saw a sharp increase, which provides an impetus for further accelerating exports in 2014.
According to HSBC, Vietnam had a US$900-million trade surplus in 2013, following only a marginal surplus in 2012. While this helped improve the country’s macro stability, it also exposes the weakness in Vietnam’s domestic demand.
Export businesses, especially foreign-invested manufacturing firms, will provide a much needed boost to Vietnam’s growth. The HSBC December PMI shows an acceleration of output for the manufacturing sector, which rose to 51.8, the highest level since April 2011.
HSBC forecasts Vietnam’s output will continue to trend upwards in the coming months as inventories have stayed low while orders are picking up.
The increase of new orders, coupled with reduced inventories, means that output will likely rise in the coming months to match the demand for goods. The sharp increase of quantity of purchases reflects anticipation of rising demand.
Inflation trended downwards to an average 6.6% year-on-year in 2013 from 9.3% in 2012 and is likely to accelerate slightly in 2014 due to higher energy and food prices, the report noted.
With US and EU GDP expected to expand in 2014, the most likely scenario is that the demand for Vietnamese goods will increase, especially for such goods as apparel and electronics and the manufacturing sector to continue its upward trend.
The most positive news from the PMI is the sharp rise of the employment sub-index which reflects the country’s competitiveness in labour-intensive manufacturing accounting for high inflows of foreign investment in 2013.
Đăng ký: VietNam News
