Over 70 % of the population of Mekong Delta (nearly 14 million people) is living in lowland rural areas covered by rivers, coastal areas and land areas are regularly waterlogged. Only based on statistics and past experience, it seems like this land suffered from little natural disasters (such as hurricanes, tornadoes, sea level rise due to storms and tsunamis). However, in recent years, the number of storms in this area is increasing.
Climate change caused more storms
Statistics in the period 1956 – 1997, on the East Sea, there are 243 storms and tropical depressions, in which 7 storm directly affected Mekong Delta (accounted for 2.88 %) . Storms in the South often occurs at the end of the year (October to December), with a frequency of 0.15 storm/year. The small percentage creates subjective feeling for local people, causing great damages in terms of people and property in the flood in 2000 and typhoon Linda in 1997.
The research findings of START Center in Southeast Asia and Research Institute on Climate Change regarding to the path of typhoons from the East Sea during 60 years (from 1945 to 2007) showed that the number of typhoons passing Mekong delta region tends to increase as evidence related to climate change .
On September 23rd 2013, the tornado’s wind speed was approximately 30km/h; in just few minutes, it resulted in collapsing and blowing roofs of more than 800 houses in Nga Nam District, Soc Trang Province. Typhoon Linda hit the coast of Ca Mau on 2 and 3/11/1997 and devastated an area of about 400 km width along the coast. According to the Committee for Flood and Storm Control of Bac Lieu province, it is estimated that there were 778 deaths and 2,123 people missing, 1,232 people injured, 7,200 billion VND of physical damage at that time. Regarding the flood in 2000, there were more than 750 people dead and injured, economic losses estimated at 4,600 billion VND. Most recently, the storm No. 13 landed on the South on November 6th 2013. This is evidence for the strong influence of the natural disasters that will not stop in the region.
Typhoon scenario – Lessons from Myanmar
Topography, geomorphology and natural features of the Irrawaddy Delta region of Myanmar and Mekong Delta have many similarities such as low and flat, the country’s largest agricultural and fishery production, quite high rural population density, sparsely housing, restrictions on means of transportation and lack of people’s awareness of disaster, etc.. Therefore, according to Assoc. Pr. Dr. Le Anh Tuan, Deputy Director of Research Institute on Climate Change, University of Can Tho, to find a typhoon scenario for the Mekong delta region, perhaps it could be referred from the memorable storm called Nargis on May 2nd 2008, coming from the Bay of Bengal and directly landed on the low plains of Myanmar’s Irrawaddy river. By May 4th 2008, the storm actually hit the country’s biggest city, Yangon. The storm with winds of 170 – 180 km/h, and rising tides caused floods and landslides in many places. The death toll could be more than 100,000 people and hundreds of thousands people injured, over 1 million people in need of emergency relief.
With a similar scenario for a super typhoon to strike the Mekong Delta, it that estimated at least, 15,000-20,000 people would be killed, over 95% of rural homes would be devastated, 50-65% of infrastructure would be damaged, economic, environmental, and social losses would be approximately equal to 5-10% GDP of the country.
Many countries such as Japan and Philippines have conducted educational program integrated with content of disaster prevention and skills to cope with disaster for students of all levels. For a country which is frequently hit by natural disasters like Vietnam, increasing awareness and investing in disaster prevention, disaster relief for the people and local governments must be considered as a long-term strategy. The efforts of the Government and people are the most important factors to minimize the impact caused by storms and floods.
T.Minh
Đăng ký: VietNam News
